Skip to content

To Sack or not to Sack that is the question

Again, we are pleased to have a blog post kindly scribed by guest and colleague at FC Sports Marketing, the great Steven Seggie.  He titles it: “Don’t Change Manager During the Season”.

“We are only a few weeks into the new English Premier League season and already we hear rumblings about managers whose jobs are on the line if the results don’t go right soon etc. During the 2013-2014 season, the number of sackings was in double figures (if you include the departure of Ian Holloway from Crystal Palace by mutual consent) and I am sure this year will be no different. Yet these mid-season sackings make little or no sense to me.

I have always wondered whether or not replacing your manager mid-season has any impact on the performance of the team. I would hazard the guess that the primary driver for most of these sackings is the hope that performances will improve yet we rarely see any analysis or discussion in the media or elsewhere as to whether or not performances improved. This may well be a function of the fact that most sports journalists do not have the ability to conduct such analysis, nevertheless that’s not really an excuse. Luckily some academics have analysed these mid-season changes and the results make for interesting reading. There are 3 major studies that I will discuss briefly here and they all demonstrate that changing manager mid-season is an exercise in futility.

The first study that I looked at was conducted by Allard Bruinshoofd and Bas ter Weel . These authors examined all the mid-season managerial sackings/changes in the Dutch league between 1988 and 2000. A little bit of analysis led them to the conclusion that you shouldn’t sack your manager mid-season. In fact, they find that if the manager had stayed his team would have performed better than the team with the new manager.

Similar results are found in a study  of Italy’s Serie A between the 2003-2004 season and the 2007-2008 season. The authors of this study, Maria de Paola and Vincenzo Scoppa found that changing the manager during the season was essentially a wasted exercise as it made no difference to subsequent performance.

Finally, Andreas Heuer, Christian Müller, Oliver Rubner, Norbert Hagemann and Bernd Strauss , in a study of the Bundesliga from the 1963-64 season to the 2008-2009 season (a total of 14,018 matches)  found no impact on performance of changing the manager mid-season.

So there we have it. The results are fairly clear cut. Changing manager mid-season has no positive effect on performance and may even lead to worse results than if the incumbent had continued. While performance may not be the only reason clubs change manager, I would guess it is the most often cited reason. So for all the supporters baying for the blood of the manager after some bad results and all the club directors thinking that changing the manager mid-season will improve performance, I have some bad news. It won’t. So you may want to think twice!”

Bruinshoofd, A. and B. ter Weel. 2004. Manager to go? Performance dips reconsidered with evidence from Dutch football. European Journal of Operations Research 148:233-246.
De Paola, M. and Scoppa,V. (2008) The effects of managerial turnover: evidence from coach dismissals in Italian soccer teams, Journal of Sports Economics, 13(2), 152–168.
Heuer A, Müller C, Rubner O, Hagemann N, Strauss B (2011) Usefulness of dismissing and changing the coach in professional soccer. PLoS ONE 6/3: e17664. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0017664

Freezing Hot

‘Ice bucket challenge’.  We’ve all heard of it and what a simple concept to gain engagement amongst fans, secure momentum and viral penetration and assist a worthy cause in the meantime.  Initially, the  initiative was to benefit myotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) but latterly participants have chosen either this or an alternative closer to their hearts. Surely, there are methods in this madness that can apply in a sports of football setting.  I for one can see how the same ideology might help a team in crisis, or fundraising appeal.  It combines action, visuality, ‘pain’ (or theatrical undertaking), satisfaction on achievement  and most of all money.

Celebrities in the football weren’t slow to join in…and why not it’s infectious.  Below are a few that caught my attention – and yours truly took part of course not wanting to be left out!

Mesut Ozil

Lionel Messi

Jose Mourinho

Moi

Mario Balotelli

Steve O’Halloran

Arda Turan

Burak Yilmaz

#COC

Starting a post with have you seen #COC could lead to all sorts of innuendo.  I was simply trying to think which hashtag my beloved County might use on its leisure shirts,  if we were to mirror those seen at Turf Moor (home of Burnley FC) today.  They proudly showed off #UTC which I can only surmise is for ‘Up the Clarets?’.  So I thought we’d have to apply #COC, #IOC (not to be confused with International Olympic Committee) or #SMFW.  I’m hoping all County followers who read this blog appreciate these abbreviations?  Or if un-inventive simply #COUNTY.

Anyway this preamble only leads to my addressing the point that, how time changes fortunes? The old rivals return to the EPL whilst we languish in regional football at Tier 6.  Similarly, as recent dealings with our commercial department has been pants – Burnley react in an all much more professional manner.

The Club Shop is well stocked with all sorts of imaginative and quality merchandise.  Not typical tat but something for all pockets.  Today the creative subbuteo players on T-shirts mocking their arch-enemy Blackburn Rovers tickled me.  The staff was friendly – even with a stranger taking photos to share with the Rovers fraternity on Twitter who naturally I have more affinity with having sponsored Tugay all those years before.

My rambling around Turf Moor today was for #ExpoNorthWest but I am proud to have been enlisted as an Associate Lecture to University College of Football Business (UCFB) that is located in the Ground.  This sharing my knowledge on commercial marketing and emerging markets to both undergraduates and visiting delegations. Yes, the Club even has its own University – an entrepreneurial development with venues in Burnley and Wembley.

So a return to the Premier and its associated riches surely means a widening of the gap – yet only the delusional County faithful would say we are on a par with that Club on or off the pitch.  But don’t worry the only claret I’ll ever follow is #COC (Come on county!)

Bite sized

Much talk about it – the talented Luis Suarez (yes the one who so easily discarded England from World Cup 2014!) having a bite of Italian.   However, I couldn’t resist the chance to publish a Guest Post written from a legal perspective, courtesy of Andrew McHale, McHale & Co Solicitors. The image that I have chosen to share is that of an Italian Pasta Manufacturer’s Ad welcoming the team home (note bite out of one!).  This ranked just above the Suarez Bottle Opener – I love opportunistic humour.  So see what you make of this take titled: “Suarez – Advisors scoring own goals?”

“I was going to pass-up on the opportunity of adding to what has been written about the Luis Suarez incident, but feel that there is one area that has not been focused on really: the quality of advice that he has been given. He seems to have been let down in this regard. As a lawyer, I have background in Criminal law (I’ve represented footballers, amongst others) as well as being an FA registered lawyer who represents players in contractual negotiations with their clubs. I undertake civil litigation work before all levels of Courts and also undertake Arbitration work (including having represented Footballers in FA Arbitration). It seems to me that the basic task of effectively advocating on behalf of Luis Suarez, in relation to the latest incident (and indeed the matter before the FA in April 2013) has been handled rather badly.

It’s quite striking that, in relation to both incidents, written representations made on his behalf have had the complete opposite effect of what was intended. They appear to have led the tribunals to the conclusion that he does not have an understanding of the seriousness of the incidents. I know that most people share the view that the version of events put forward to FIFA by Suarez is comical. It may well be what he told his advisors, but it seems incredible that they simply regurgitated it and forwarded it on. He should clearly have been advised that his version was not going to be believed and that as a consequence of that; he appeared to not be taking responsibility for his actions, which in turn meant that he was unlikely to seek any help to solve the “problem”. He presented as someone in denial and as a consequence left the tribunal to come to the conclusion that he was at greater risk of re-offending. It’s clear that the written representations did more harm than good. Even if he was fully in denial about his behaviour, I am sure that he could still have expressed regret about the incident and apologised to Georgio Chiellini for any injury caused (as anyone who accidentally injured someone would). This would clearly have been preferable to the denial that was issued.

What makes this error even worse is that it is not the first time that it has occurred. Whilst different advisors may well have been involved, you would have expected lessons to have been learned. In the Ivanovic case, whilst there was an apology, but, “when …read in conjunction with Mr Suarez’s denial of the standard punishment that would otherwise apply…..it seemed to us that Mr Suarez did not fully appreciate the gravity and seriousness of this truly exceptional incident” , to quote the Reasons of the FA Regulatory Commission. Effectively the submissions made on his behalf appear to have lead to a harsher outcome than could have been achieved by taking a different approach. We will never know if something along the lines of suggesting a ban of twice that set-down for violent conduct (ie 6 matches) would have found favour on that occasion but I would hazard that it would have.

The effect of having served a 10 match ban previously and not appearing to have learnt his lesson meant that the starting point in the present case was increased. The ripple effect carries on. In addition to this, having advised on an unrealistic outcome initially his advisors will have then forced themselves into a position of telling Suarez that he had been harshly treated. The point gets lost that stopping biting people should be the main focus of attention whereas railing against the injustice takes centre stage. Whilst I’m no psychologist it occurs that this could amount to a form of enabling that has left the underlying malady untreated.

So, on balance, I put myself on the side that says Suarez has been hard done too overall, but I don’t blame the authorities for this. They were placed in an impossible position. What he needs is some firm guidance and not from “yes” men. Telling clients what they want to hear can mean that you retain them in the short-term but it’s not in anyone’s interests long-term.

There is a piece of advice that I have given people over the years in Police stations: “Keep your trap shut”. It would have been useful here in more ways than one.”

I’m guessing the final admission and apology in writing was either a u-turn or pre-requisite of a future club that couldn’t be seen to tarnish its brand or condone such cannibalism.